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Government Austerity Holding Back U.S. Economic Growth

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Friday's news that U.S. gross domestic product grew by only 2.5 percent came as a disappointment. After all, that performance not only fell short of the consensus expectation of three percent GDP growth, but was aided by a one-time bump for inventory expansion deferred from the last quarter of 2012. And while the strengthening housing market was a bright spot, those gains were offset by the contraction of government spending that on average has slashed half a point off GDP each quarter since early 2010. As it turns out, after years of austerity by state and local governments, Uncle Sam, too, is holding back U.S. economic growth.

As Floyd Norris explained in the New York Times, the U.S. hasn't seen this kind of contraction since the post-Korean War demobilization of the mid-1950's:

The G.D.P. report released Friday states the total government part of G.D.P. - federal, state and local - came to $3.0306 trillion in the first quarter of this year. That is 0.01 percent below the $3.0309 trillion recorded four years earlier.

Those are nominal figures, not adjusted for inflation...On a real basis, the decline was 6.5 percent.

And that kind of drag, Jared Bernstein warned, is offsetting the double-digit expansion the housing sector has enjoyed for three straight quarters:

Housing continues to be a bright spot as residential investment was up almost 13% on an annual basis. Housing has now been a positive contributor to growth for two-years running, adding 0.3% to the 2.5% growth rate for the first quarter.

But the government sector more than offset housing's contribution, shaving 0.8% off of the growth rate, with across the board declines in defense, non-defense, and state and local public spending. Since 2010q1, the public sector has, on average, taken half-a-percent from real GDP growth per quarter.

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Despite slashing the national debt by an additional $1.8 trillion over the next decade, President Obama's proposed fiscal year 2014 budget was received with two predictable talking points by Republican leaders. House Majority Eric Cantor, who previously complained about being called a "hostage taker," protested that "we ought to do so without holding [entitlement cuts] hostage for more tax hikes." His fellow debt-ceiling hostage-taker John Boehner echoed that sound bite, proclaiming "I would hope that he would not hold hostage these modest reforms for his demand for bigger tax hikes." But Boehner didn't end there:

"The president got his tax hikes in January; we don't need to be raising taxes on the American people."

Speaker Boehner couldn't be more wrong. As it turns out, Uncle Sam has a well-documented need for more tax revenue in the years ahead. And a big reason why is that between them, Presidents Bush and Obama cut taxes by more than the five times the amount of the combined new revenue hikes Obama got in January and is asking for now.

The chart above tells the tale. Leaving aside the new funding contained in the Affordable Care Act, President Obama is seeking $1.2 trillion in new tax revenue over the next decade. With the fiscal cliff deal in January, Obama got about $620 billion, or about half that amount. Individuals making over $400,000 a year (and households earning over $450,000) will see their income tax rate return to its Clinton-era level of 39.6 percent. The capital gains rate similarly will be reset at 20 (from 15) percent. In his FY 2014 budget proposal, the President has asked for another $580 billion by 2023, primarily by capping deductions for the wealthy at 28 percent, instituting the so-called "Buffett Rule," and ending tax breaks for the booming energy sector.

But Obama's $1.2 trillion in current and requested tax increases pales in comparison to the roughly $6.4 trillion he and George W. Bush will have drained from the U.S. Treasury between 2001 and 2023.

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PBS Pushes Village Narrative with Frontline Documentary

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While most eyes were trained on the State of the Union address (or a burning cabin in California), PBS last Tuesday aired a documentary on the ongoing fiscal deadlock in Washington titled, "Cliffhanger." In it, the House Speaker John Boehner is portrayed as hopelessly trapped between an equivocating and untrustworthy President Obama who "poisoned the well" and an immovable Tea Party caucus manipulated by the hyper-ambitious Eric Cantor. But the usually excellent Frontline series didn't merely get lost in the weeds of DC politics. When it comes to the unprecedented Republican debt ceiling hostage-taking that precipitated Washington's "cliffhanger," PBS missed the forest for the trees altogether.

What is the Fiscal Cliff? One of the most striking omissions from a film titled "Cliffhanger" is any definition of the so-called "fiscal cliff." That triple witching hour on January 1, 2013 when the Bush tax cuts and the two-year payroll tax reduction set to expire just as the $1.2 trillion, ten-year sequester was to begin is never fully explained. (The sequester drop-dead date was shifted to March 1.) And the risk in that manufactured crisis was not that the United States would suddenly increase its national debt, but instead reduce too quickly and thus trigger a steep (and unnecessary) recession.

Glossing Over the Original Sin. In "Cliffhanger", Frontline's sins are myriad. But none is more crucial than skirting past the original sin itself. That is, the Republican threat beginning in 2011 to trigger a default on the full faith and credit of the United States isn't just without parallel in modern American history. It is the GOP's extortion over the debt ceiling (which Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell called "a hostage that's worth ransoming" and a "new template") which is responsible for the sequester and "fiscal cliff" showdowns which followed.

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'Deficit' Deal Included Sweetheart Tax Break For Biotech Firm

So much for the alleged "deficit reduction," huh? (As Atrios keeps repeating, nobody really cares about the deficit.) Bill Moyers interviews Rep. Peter Welch (D-VT) about a corporate tax exemption for Amgen, the world's largest biotech company, that was included in the "fiscal cliff" deal:

A recent article in The New York Times reported on a cost-control exception provided to Amgen, the world’s largest biotechnology firm. According to the report, the sweetheart deal — hidden in the Senate’s final “fiscal cliff” bill — will cost taxpayers half a billion dollars. Bill talks to U.S. Representative Peter Welch (D-VT) about the bi-partisan bill he recently sponsored to repeal that giveaway, and the political factors that allow such crony capitalism to occur.

“When there is this back room dealing that comes at enormous expense to taxpayers and enormous benefit to a private, well-connected, for-profit company, we’ve got to call it out,” Welch tells Bill. “Those members of Congress who are concerned about the institution, about our lack of credibility, about the necessity of us doing things that are in the public good as opposed to private gain, we’ve got to call it out.”

As Dave Johnson recently pointed out, let's not call this "crony capitalism" or plain old political reality. Call it what it is. It's corruption.

Our political culture is such that coercion, threats, extortion, blackmail and payoffs are now more common than not. And it all goes back to the same thing: Money in politics. Election finance reform would fix most of the problems. We've always had corrupt politicians, but we could at least minimize their impact.



Congress Kills Part of the Affordable Care Act

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If the ACA is a bundle of experiments in how to lower health care costs and make it more affordable for everyone, then this deal gives Republican a mark in their "kill" column for the ACA and consumers.

On the very last page of the part of the fiscal cliff bill dealing with various Medicare extenders, the doc fix and other health care considerations, there is a provision which de-funds appropriations allowed in the Affordable Care Act for Community Operated and Owned Plans, or "co-ops".

The appropriations were for loans to be made to new, non-profit plans established by people who were not already health insurance providers, with a goal to increasing competition in the insurance marketplace.

Sarah Kliff at the Washington Post reports:

When Congress struck a deal to avert the fiscal cliff, it also dealt a quiet blow to President Obama’s health overhaul: The new law killed a multibillion-dollar program meant to boost health insurance competition by funding nonprofit health plans.

The decision to end funding for the Consumer Operated and Oriented Plans has left as many as 40 start-ups vying for federal dollars in limbo. Some are considering legal action against the Obama administration, after many spent upwards of $100,000 preparing their applications.

“Currently there are some things in motion,” said Robert Raasch, who had requested a multimillion-dollar loan to set up a nonprofit health plan in Oklahoma. “There may be some legal challenges or some legislative mechanisms we could use. All of that is in discussion.”

The Consumer Operated and Oriented Plan, or CO-OP, program was aimed at spending as much as $6 billion to help launch nonprofit health insurance carriers. It came into favor with Democrats when it became clear that a government-run plan, known as the public option, could not gain enough political support.

I'm going to disagree with that last paragraph a bit. Yes, this was intended to create an option that was non-profit, with 95 percent of premium dollars going toward actual health care expenses rather than padding the bottom line for profits. But this was not ever sold as or intended to create the impression that it was any sort of replacement or even consolation prize for the public option. . Despite Wendell Potter's belated endorsement of co-ops as a possible sleeper solution to the public option, there were many barriers to success to overcome.

The plan intended to take the place of the public option was and is the OPM alternative to be offered on all health insurance exchanges alongside commercial options, which is national in scope.

The right wing hates the OPM option and wishes they could kill it. It appears they had to settle for de-funding the loans to CO-OPs instead. Conservatives have long looked for ways to de-fund the ACA, and the CO-OPs were one of the first and primary targets. By conflating the Solyndra loan guarantees with the loan guarantees in the ACA, they managed to create enough negative energy to kill them in exchange for raising taxes, evidently.

Unfortunately, this has left a lot of people hanging out to dry in several states, just as they were ramping up their operations to be ready in 2014.

Kliffe writes:

The decision to end CO-OP funding has hit Robert Schyberg hard. Schyberg had submitted a request for $60 million to launch a plan in West Virginia. He estimates that his organization, HMO Affiliates, spent more than $100,000 preparing the application and numerous hours negotiating with hospitals and physicians, convincing the providers to join their nascent network.

On Nov. 13, Schyberg’s colleague received a letter from Medicare noting that they had “been selected to enter into discussions to potentially receive a loan or loans under the CO-OP Program for the State of West Virginia.” Schyberg said he had a meeting scheduled for the last week of December to finalize details of the loan. When it got pushed to Jan. 3, he did not think much of the one-week delay.

“New Year’s Eve happened, and everything changed,” he said.

His colleague received another letter from the Obama administration, on Jan. 9, saying “CMS no longer has authority to enter into new loan agreements with CO-OP applicants, including your organization.”

It appears the White House and Congressional Democrats weren't particularly averse to letting go of this single provision in order to get the tax issue put behind them. On the one hand, it doesn't seem like a dealbreaker on its face. On the other hand, they've now placed the ACA on the budget negotiation table, which increases its vulnerability in the upcoming budget showdown with repeal-hungry Republicans.

Killing these organizations was a concession to the large insurers. Here's how the National Review framed it:

Furthermore, several provisions in Section 1322 actually make it less likely that these co-ops will work. To start with, the legislation expressly prohibits the most likely and sensible path to setting up a co-op insurer, namely, a divestiture or conversion by an existing health insurer. Thus, neither an existing nonprofit health insurer (such as Kaiser Permanente) nor an existing stockholder-owned insurer (such as Aetna) could become a co-op under the provisions of Section 1322. Nor would either of them be allowed to spin off a portion of their existing business as a co-op. The only way to create one of the proposed co-op insurers is to start one from scratch — an inherently lengthy, uncertain, and expensive task.

Yes, of course. That is because these were intended to compete with the Kaisers and Aetnas of the world, which is exactly what they didn't want. Co-ops were barred from using federal grants for marketing and had the steep Medical Loss Ratio requirement of 95 percent, which would have made them lean and mean in the marketplace. Aetna in particular couldn't have that.



The Next Self-Made Crisis

There is a great deal of angst and worry among progressives about what is going to happen in two months, when the Republicans will once again try to hold the economy hostage so they can cut Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, education, and everything else in the federal budget that helps low- and middle-income folks. It is of course a bad situation when you have one branch of the government eager to blow up the economy to do bad things that more than 80 percent of Americans oppose, but we need to spend a lot less time worrying and a lot more time organizing.

We can beat these guys, and beat them badly, if we have a focused and aggressive strategy.

There are four things progressives should do right now. The first relates to the President. I understand the disappointment we're feeling about his kicking the can down the road another two months, and the leverage lost on the revenue side. And I was very critical of the President’s willingness to swap cuts in Social Security benefits for a deal in this last go-around, and will fight him with every ounce of energy if he proposes any such thing again. But right now is the worst possible time to be raising doubts about this President’s willingness to hang tough in a negotiation as some of my friends in the progressive movement are doing.

The Republicans need to know that the President is deadly serious when he says he won’t negotiate on the debt ceiling, and that the entire progressive movement and Democratic party have his back on this. No negotiation whatsoever. Period and end of sentence.

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Stupid Right-Wing Tweets: Matt Lewis Edition

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Matt Lewis, who we've previously caught accusing "liberals" of trying to strangle Marco Rubio and struggling with the definition of irony, just can't fathom Nancy Pelosi passing a bill with mostly Republican support.

Except for the fact that she did.

Now everyone makes mistakes, but you'd think someone who's paid to write about politics would know stuff about politics. Or at least consult the Googles.

By the way, Lewis (@mattklewis) blocked me on Twitter after I pointed this out to him the other night (wingers are so sensitive!) -- so please direct any of his future SRWTs to @BlueTexanTweets.



Boehner to Reid: "Go F--- Yourself!"

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Unhappy lies the head that wears a crown...

John Boehner is not a happy man these days. He's bitter, and angry, and his leadership, if you can call it that, has been exposed as an abject failure. But when Harry Reid accused Boehner of scuttling the fiscal cliff deal last week in order to preserve his place as Speaker, it seems Speaker Boehner came unglued.

Via The Politico:

House Speaker John Boehner couldn’t hold back when he spotted Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in the White House lobby last Friday.

It was only a few days before the nation would go over the fiscal cliff, no bipartisan agreement was in sight, and Reid had just publicly accused Boehner of running a “dictatorship” in the House and caring more about holding onto his gavel than striking a deal.

“Go f— yourself,” Boehner sniped as he pointed his finger at Reid, according to multiple sources present.

Reid, a bit startled, replied: “What are you talking about?”

Boehner repeated: “Go f— yourself.”

Of course, Politico being Republico, they couldn't let that sit there without telling the story of how the White House treated Mr. Boehner so unfairly.

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Graham: Obama Needs To 'Man Up' And Cut Our Social Safety Net

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I seriously think it's quite possible Sen. Lindsey Graham has a pre-recorded Principled Outrage speech that he just moves his lips to as he goes on cable news shows (h/t Susie Madrak). Apparently, at least in this version of the speech, he's hoping that while he's voicing his Principled Outrage, nobody will notice that he's endangering our country's solvency with threats to hold the debt-ceiling hostage - as he comes after the earned benefits of everyday Americans.

Today's Principled Outrage came during a visit to Fox & Friends in which Graham discussed the Senate deal to come back from the fiscal cliff we've supposedly just fallen over. But rather than express relief at working out a deal (which the House has yet to vote on as I write this) and avoiding this supposed disaster, Graham stamped his foot and threatened President Obama with taking the debt ceiling hostage: “If you think you're gonna get the debt ceiling raised by coming out with a plan about an hour before it expires – these days are over.”

He urged the House to “make it better if you can” but to “save your powder for the debt-ceiling fight.”

Work with me and others never to raise the debt ceiling again unless we address why we're in so much debt, never do a debt ceiling increase until we save Social Security and Medicare from bankruptcy, and get this country off the road to becoming Greece. That's where we have leverage. That's where we should go to next.

.

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We Survived The Cliff, Act One!

On December 31st, members of Congress and the President engaged in theater that rivaled any you'd find on Broadway. Mind you, the intended audience was not us. No, this was a performance for the markets.

All morning long, Senators scurried around. Republicans dropped lots of misinformation about "negotiations" out there to light progressives' hair on fire, and Democrats stayed low and under the radar.

At around 1:30 pm eastern, President Obama held a speech (see video), twitting Republicans about how he wasn't going to let them hold the debt ceiling hostage for spending cuts, and how a purported Senate "deal" was nearly done even if it wasn't the Grand Bargain he had hoped for. As he lamented that, he tossed out that the purported "deal" was about the best he could hope to get from this Congress. Oh, needles were flying.

That brought out sad-faced Republicans like Grumpy McCain and Lindsey Graham, who said they were shocked that the man they've called "uppity boy" for four years would erode civility that way.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial average inched up, closing 168 points higher than where it opened.

Then the actors took a bow.

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